The following is one of numerous short blogs I wrote for my kids as they graduated from high school. Each received 12 blogs, tailored to each one, in a book.
Confirmation Bias
“Most of us are not really approaching the subject [scriptures] in order to find out what Christianity says: we are approaching it [them] in the hope of finding support from Christianity for the views of our own party.” ― C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity
Binary Thinking
Human beings have a strong dramatic instinct toward binary thinking, a basic urge to divide things into two distinct groups, with nothing but an empty gap in between. We love to dichotomize. Good versus bad. Heroes versus villains. My country versus the rest. Dividing the world into two distinct sides is simple and intuitive, and also dramatic because it implies conflict, and we do it without thinking, all the time. Hans Rosling
Scripture
All Scripture is God-breathed and is useful for teaching, rebuking, correcting and training in righteousness, so that the servant of God may be thoroughly equipped for every good work.
Story
I remember studying the scientific method when I was young, and this one day sticks in my memory. I learned that a good scientist does everything to disprove his hypothesis rather than try to prove his hypothesis. The teacher said that if you try to PROVE your hypothesis you may easily only find data that supports it. Instead, do everything you can to DISPROVE your theory, and if after exhausting all efforts to prove yourself wrong, then humbly suggest you may be right. When I heard this for the first time, I was in awe. This was some serious revelation to my little engineering heart. Since that red letter day, I have tried to apply this idea to all of my life. This idea makes relationships, philosophy, family life, Christianity, politics, and theology better because it prevents Confirmation Bias, the strong tendency to only see that which agrees with your thinking.
In earlier years I was the poster child for binary thinking. There were only two states for everything, good or bad. I did not drink because that was the only way to be. You agreed with me or you were wrong. I was shocked when I read a story about German Christians. They spent the day helping people, and at night they drank a lot of beer. What! Not possible. It was the first time I considered whether my “Truth” could be a cultural preference only, and whether there could be gray areas.
Lesson
Admittedly, I have a LOT of thoughts about correct thinking. There was a guy named Dr Spock in Star Trek who had no emotions, so that his every action was purely logical. My hero. I tried to think of the two worst thinking errors, and came up with Confirmation Bias and Binary Thinking.
One of the fascinating things about humanity is our tendency toward confirmation bias. According to the all-knowing one, Siri, confirmation bias is the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories. It is that tendency (even if unintentional) to hear five facts and only listen to the two facts that support our position. It relates to our tendency to make a decision based on our emotions and then find facts that show the decision was good. In the spiritual world, it is the tendency to believe a particular theology and then go to the Bible to find support for our belief.
An example from politics is from the Obamacare debates. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said of the Affordable Care Act, in 2010: But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.” Taken out of context, this was fodder for the Republicans showing the incompetence of the Democrats. However, when reading the entire context of the speech, you realize that the sound bite taken by itself did not represent what Pelosi said.
An example from Christianity is the Westboro Baptist Church. This church which protests in hostile and painful ways would be considered extremist by the vast majority of Christians, can easily support its theology using the Bible. They look for what they want to see.
We see the same in the debate over homosexuality in the Christian church. Those on all sides of the issue support their position from the Bible. How can one book tell multiple stories? It is because we all find what supports our beliefs, and ignore what challenges them.
We see confirmation bias throughout race relations. We think that “white people are this” or “black people are that” or “Asians are so and so.” Then we look around and are biased toward evidence that proves us right while ignoring everything that challenges our stereotype, and then feel justified in our belief.
But what’s the point? Good science and sound logic and right human relations require us to recognize confirmation bias in ourselves and make better judgments. To do so, we must be vigilantly intentional about looking for confirmation bias in ourselves and choosing to accept all data and not just that which supports our belief. We must listen to the people we [currently?] disagree with, the people outside our tribe, to get all the facts. In politics, we can hear the person on the other side of the aisle. In Christianity, it’s good to listen to all opinions inside the church, and even outside, as we seek Jesus’ truth. In our families, we can get the whole picture before jumping to conclusions. In the significant issues of our day like race relations, gun control, global warming, and immigration we can listen to information from all sides before making judgments on what is right. The list goes on and on.
Begin to recognize confirmation bias in ourselves and begin to make better judgments by intentionally considering all the evidence, not just what supports your initial belief.
When we are children it is natural to think in binary. All we understand is good or bad, right or wrong. But we must grow beyond this in many areas of life. Of course, some things are inherently binary. It is true, as the scripture implies, that people do or do not know Jesus, there are no gray areas there. But most of the world is composed of shades of grey.
There are a lot of people that want you to stay stuck in binary thinking because you are more easily controlled that way.
Let's look at politics. The left and the right want you to believe there are only two ways to think. They want you to pick a side and vilify the other. The last thing they want is for you is to think for yourself and agree with some parts of the right and some parts of the left, or consider a compromise. The power brokers of the world need people on their side, not people that think for themselves. Using fear-mongering about “the other side” they try to convince us that theirs is the only way. The truth is that most of the people in this country are good-hearted and want the best for the country and each person. They may still be wrong, but they aren’t evil. You would do well to intentionally and regularly listen carefully to people that disagree with your political views. I believe that if the right controlled politics for too long, they would destroy the earth, and if the left controlled politics for too long, they would drive the economy into the toilet.
Let’s look at racism, sexism, and LGBT. There is this huge tendency to think of our group as right and others are, well, completely wrong. We are told that we must be for our tribe, which requires us to think less of another tribe. This is another false dichotomy. We can think well of our tribe and other tribes. We never have to lower any other group in order for us to feel good.
Let’s look at Christianity. Christians often develop a picture of us holy Christians versus those rotten sinners. But this is generally a false dichotomy also. The battle is holy Christians versus the evil spiritual forces. When our perspective is wrong, we the church naturally become uninteresting to the world we are trying to show Jesus.
Use your noggin so you do not succumb to those that try to twist the world into whites and black.
Recommended Resources
Questions
Where in your life is it easier to accept prevailing wisdom without questioning?
How do you feel when others disagree with you and offer differing ideas?
What do you agree with in the Republican agenda? What about the Democratic?
Where have you thought there were only two options, but in retrospect, there were more?
How could you take the opportunity to listen to someone that disagrees with you to understand their perspective?
